The next electoral test for the UK’s political parties will take place on Thursday 2nd May with elections for 35 English councils, including all 27 non-metropolitan councils, eight English unitary authorities and a single Welsh unitary authority. There will also be contests to elect mayors in North Tyneside and Doncaster. So do the results matter?
Most of the seats up for grabs were last fought in 2009 at the same time as the last elections to the European Parliament, and a time of high drama on the national political scene following the MPs’ expenses scandal and speculation over a Labour leadership bid against the PM by David Miliband. Against this background Labour lost control of every single county council, the Conservatives gained seven, the Lib Dems, recognised as the most effective local grassroots campaigners of all, held their heartlands. And in the Euro elections UKIP trotted into second place.
With an average turnout of just 39 per cent in 2009, compared to 65 per cent in the general election one year later, it is unwise to over interpret the lessons from voter choices made in the locals, and traditionally government parties themselves are reluctant to do so. Bleary-eyed ministers who draw the short-straw to end up as election-night spokespeople always discount the significance of mid-term swings against incumbent parties on low voter turnouts.
The elections are “first past the post” contests and the councillors elected represent geographical divisions or wards and serve for four years. A ward may be represented by between one and three councillors depending on the size of the electorate. The county councils, Welsh and most English unitaries elect all their councillors “all out” in each election, but of the English unitaries 18 out of the 55 “elect by thirds”. Councillors are unpaid but receive an allowance, increased by “cabinet” responsibilities.
Historically the local election results are regarded by the media, if not the parties, as a barometer of voting intention for forthcoming national contests. In the UK, these next elections will be to the European Parliament in 2014 and, assuming the current coalition Government goes the distance, a general election in 2015. In 2009, the results foretold the fall of Labour, but could not anticipate the double-whammy effect of the “I agree with Nick” leaders’ TV debates boosting the Lib Dems, and the lack-lustre Conservative campaign, snatching outright victory from the Tories.
Many people do in fact vote with local knowledge, on local issues, in local elections. The councils are responsible for very local services: education, social services, transport, strategic planning, fire services, consumer protection, refuse disposal, smallholdings and libraries. They may be judged by the way they have managed budget cuts and delivered these services. With government capped council-tax rates the biggest differentiator has been denied the electorate, but some voters may still go for the local person and not necessarily the party label. Over the years I have heard many a voter quizzed on the doorstep canvass say something like “well I’m usually Conservative, but the Lib Dem Sally is a neighbour and does a great job.” The Lib Dems have a strong record picking up local votes, and “protest” votes in this way. Voters often choose to use local elections as a way of sending a message, about their disagreement on a policy or disillusionment with the world, to the party leaders.
This week the beneficiaries of such protest voting are expected to be the UK Independence Party (UKIP), currently running third in national opinion polls and bolstered by the defection of Conservative councillors at a rate of one a week since the beginning of the year. No doubt the UKIP vote on Thursday will be reported by some as the most significant barometer for national elections, simply to reinforce the momentum of opinion poll trends, and it is of course true that the majority of the seats contested in the Tory counties will have bell-weather value if not indicate actual future voting intention of the electorate which incidentally has consistently the highest voter turnout, the middle class, middle aged, of Middle England. They are enraged over a range of assaults on cherished values and issues of concern from immigration and gay marriage to wind farms and high-speed rail.
This will also be seen as a big test for Labour’s Ed Miliband with commentators looking for a sign that he can capitalise on anti-government sentiment, and for a pulse-check on Nick Clegg whose party is widely expected to be the most damaged in 2015. But it is Mr Cameron who will be looking at results most keenly, no doubt wishing that these elections were not taking place in so many of the non-metropolitan shire heartlands where his loudest internal critics live and vote. On Friday there is a strong chance that it is the Conservatives who will be most strongly denying the significance of the results, but also the ones analysing them most closely.
This is reprinted from http://www.policyperiscope.com/ … well worth a look for even better content there from some of my colleagues at Burson-Marsteller.
